Greater Phoenix Residential Market
November 2, 2022
Number of Seller Concessions Goes Way Up!
Get Ready for the Influx of Buyers
Overall Median Purchase Price Barely Moves in September
AZ Economy Update: In 2023 AZ to Have Lowest Flat Tax
September 2022 Single-Family Resale Results
Unless otherwise mentioned, the following results are for single-family resale homes in Greater Phoenix. The information used in this report was compiled from data provided by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc.
The overall median purchase price (MPP) for a single-family resale home in Greater Phoenix barely moved in September. It dropped $1,000 from August to September. It was $499,000 in September. The MPP for the previous three months had an average monthly drop of $13,333. The September 2022 MPP of $499,999 is $49,000 or 11% higher than a year ago in September 2021 when it was $450,000. Chart One shows the MPP for the last thirteen months.
Table One compares the MPP for thirty cities month-over-month and year-over-year. The cities are located in either Maricopa or Pinal Counties. While the overall MPP barely moved down in September, twelve cities had increases in the MPP, sixteen had decreases and two broke even. The cities with the greatest increases month-over-month were Sun Lakes at 15%, Fountain Hills at 14% and Coolidge at 10%. The cities with the greatest decreases in MPP were Litchfield Part at 13%, Casa Grande at 9% and Queen Creek at 8%. Year-over-year, September 2021 compared to September 2022, all thirty cities have gains in the MPP. Fountain Hills had the greatest gain at 31% percent, Sun Lakes at 27% and Coolidge at 23%.
In September there were 4,117 sales of single-family resale homes in Greater Phoenix. This is slightly higher than the 4,037 sales in August, but much lower than the 6,260 sales in September 2021. The number of sales in the third quarter of 2022 were the lowest for a third quarter since 2007. However, the number of sales in the third quarters of 2019, 2020 and 2021 are some of the best quarters on record.
The number of single-family resale homes listed in September was 5,984. This is the lowest number of listings during any month of September since the year 2000. New resale listing inventory in September 2022 had a month-over-month decrease of 11% and a year-over-year decrease of 15%. In other words, while fewer sellers listed their homes for sale in September, the number of single-family resale listings currently is double what it was last year at this time.
Days on market this year were 46 in September compared to 39 in August, contrasted with 27 in September of last year. Days on the market are up because there is less demand to buy due to higher mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in September 2022 was 6.11%. Compare this to September 2021 when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.90%. Payment shock! The principal and interest payment on a $500,000 loan at 6.11% is $3,033 compared to $2,081 when the mortgage rate was 2.90%. A difference of $952 a month!
Median monthly rent (MMR) for a single-family resale home dropped in September of this year by $63 or 2.6% ($2,289) contrasted from August of this year ($2,352). Last year MMR was $11 more than September of this year.
Big Increase: Sales with a Seller Concession
The number of sales with a seller concession is up! In September 2022, 39% of sales had a seller concession compared to 13% of sales in September 2021. According to ARMLS data, in September 2022, 665 sales had a seller concession under $5,000, 541 sales had a seller concession from $5,000 to $9,999 and 403 at $10,000 or more. In September 2021 only 51 sales had a seller concession of $10,000 or more. In September 2022 there were seller concessions with 42% of conventional loans, 69% of FHA loans, 62% of VA loans and 17% of cash purchases. See Table Two.
Arizona Economy Update: School is Back and AZ to Have Lowest Flat Tax in 2023
Month-over-month, August 2022 the most recent information from the Arizona Commerce Authority (ACA)
compared to July 2022 reports that the Arizona seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 3.5% in August 2022 from 3.3% in July 2022. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in August 2022 from 3.5% in July 2022. In addition, Arizona nonfarm employment increased by 46,300 jobs over July. The largest gains were recorded in Government (38,200 jobs) and Construction (3,700 jobs). The large increase in government jobs were primarily driven by the start of a new school year for public schools. Sectors that lost jobs were in Financial Activities (-800 jobs), Leisure & Hospitality (-700 jobs) and Other Services (-100 jobs). The July 2022 nonfarm employment change was revised to a gain of 19,300 jobs from a gain of 18,300 jobs.
Year-Over-Year, August 2022 compared to August 2021, ACA reported that Arizona nonfarm employment increased by 111,000 jobs (3.7%). Arizona private sector employment increased by 101,400 jobs (4.0%), while government employment increased by 9,600 jobs (2.4%). Ten of Arizona’s eleven major job sectors recorded job gains. The largest gains were recorded in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (22,600 jobs) and Education and Health Services (20,100 jobs). Financial Activities lost 1,400 jobs. All seven Arizona metropolitan statistical areas gained jobs. The largest percentage gains were recorded in Flagstaff MSA (5.9%) and Prescott MSA (4.5%).
On January 1, 2024 Arizona was to have the lowest flat tax in the United States. But now, the flat tax of 2.5% will take effect, one-year earlier, on January 1, 2023. Why? Because the great migration of people and businesses moving to AZ has led to record revenues. The Joint Legislative Budget Committee and the Governor’s Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting determined that “General Fund revenues excluding the beginning balance in Fiscal Year 2022 were $16.7 billion — exceeding the statutory thresholds required to immediately implement the 2.5% flat tax in the coming tax year.” For more information on the early implementation of the flat tax go to Arizona’s Lowest Flat Tax in Nation To Take Effect Next Year | Office of the Arizona Governor (azgovernor.gov).
Are You Prepared for the INFLUX of People into Arizona (potential buyers)?
The out-of-state visitor season will soon be upon us. Some of the reasons for the influx of visitors are the Barrett-Jackson 2022 Auction from January 22-30. Then the Waste Management Phoenix Open from February 8-12. Then on February 12 the Superbowl! And don’t forget what a driving force the snow is for bringing lots of people to Arizona.
Why I am Optimistic?
While we are in a market reset, I am optimistic about residential sales this coming fall and into the new year for the following reasons: 1) prices have dropped in many areas making homes a little more affordable, 2) buyers now have more home choices, 3) they also are much more likely to get a seller concession when purchasing (This will help to offset some of the effect of higher mortgage rates), 4) net migration of people into AZ continues. 5) a low state tax will be an impetus for some people to move here…especially when our 2023 AZ state tax will have a maximum rate of 2.5% compared to California where the maximum state tax rate is 12.3% and 6) AZ has a strong economy with many companies continuing to relocate or expand operations here.
In summary, my optimism, is as strong as Arizona’s economy!
Chart One: Overall Median Purchase Price
Table One: Median Purchase Price for Thirty Cities in AZ by The Wilcox Report™
Table Two: Percentage of Sales with a Seller Concession by The Wilcox Report™